5G, the next decade of China PCB's track
5G technology changes, the most significant radio frequency, both PCB offensive and defensive. The wave of 5G construction that will start in 2019 will open up new space for the upstream industry. Considering the frequency increase and the delay reduction, 5G not only differs from 4G in system architecture design, but also puts new requirements on the materials for wireless radio frequency. The filters, antennas, vibrators, PCBs and other links have all changed. The market ignores the advantages of PCB relative to other RF links. We believe that PCB is relatively mature, and it has built a technology and capacity moat. It is similar to fiber optic cable. Although it is used in large quantities, communication equipment vendors are not directly involved. Relatively stable, at the same time, the increasingly strict environmental protection policies in China have gradually brought the competitive advantage to the head manufacturers. The gross profit rate of Shanghai Power and Shennan in the past five years is evidence.
The 5G base station doubled, and the wireless architecture changed the PCB price and price. We judge that the number of 5G base stations will reach 1.3-1.5 times that of 4G, and the overall number will increase. At the same time, due to the adoption of multi-antenna (MIMO) technology, 5G has higher requirements for miniaturization and integration. In the radio unit (AAU), The part that was originally connected through the feeder was gradually changed to PCB, and with the development of high frequency band and millimeter wave band in the future, the value of PCB in communication system equipment is expected to increase from 2% to 5%-6%. According to comprehensive estimates, the global market size of 5G base station PCBs is 116.5 billion, 5.5 times that of the 4G period; 5G construction peaks in a single-year global market size of 26.9 billion, and the domestic market scale is 16.1 billion.
The high-frequency high-speed copper clad laminate material on the PCB is the core, and the import substitution space is large. The market believes that the growth of PCB mainly depends on the “quantity”. It is believed that in the early 5G, the requirements for PCB in the IF band of 2.6G and 3.5G are not high, but we believe that the application of high-frequency and high-speed plates will be used throughout. The whole medium, high frequency and millimeter wave stages, 5G low delay, high reliability and low power consumption put forward higher requirements for copper clad laminates.