5G investment maximum certainty in PCB
- Release on:2019-02-12
ZTE is in 5G<Ultra-thin PCB manufacturer china>The aspect is actually very strong. As a seed player in the 5G field of the world, ZTE and Huawei will not fall out of the top ten in the industry no matter how they "hit".
2020 is the 5G commercial year, and after the ZTE incident and Huawei incident this year, is China's 5G industry at a crossroads? Is there an investment value? There is no doubt that the progress of China's 5G industry is unstoppable, and both ZTE and Huawei have certain counterattack strength. From the secondary market, the relevant leading stocks are currently undervalued. Specific to the segmentation area, the most deterministic is the PCB (such as high-frequency high-speed board) faucet, but also optimistic about the development of the Internet of Things, car networking and so on.
5G faucet has valuation advantage
Because Huawei is not listed, ZTE and Fiberhome Communications must be equipped with one – this is a big core ticket. If you are worried about the uncertainty of the trade war, Fiberhome Communications is a state-owned enterprise and is mainly a domestic market. The United States can't do it anymore - you can configure it. Then the sub-new or small votes with better elasticity among the relevant concept stocks can also be considered. There is also a ticket for the Internet of Things.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, equipment can be invested first – this is expected to be more consistent. After the equipment, it is the operator - A shares are China Unicom. Next is the downstream, one is to do the application, the other is to do 5G outward radiation of the Internet of Things sector. In addition, materials such as PCB, including many small tickets are made of PCB, light-emitting devices, these will have performance improvement.
Does ZTE have no investment opportunities?
It’s late to talk about ZTE now. If you consider the profit of the peak period of 5G construction in the next two years, the current stock price is still cheap.
Although ZTE may still be used as a bargaining chip in the trade war, ZTE and Huawei are the seed players in the 5G field of the world. No matter how they "hit", they will not fall out of the top ten in the industry. When ZTE is banned from selling chips, the worst preparation is to make patent hooligans, and it is also possible to counterattack one.
Who is the most valuable investment in the 5G segmentation leader?
The most certainty is the PCB. The base station density of 5G will be much larger than before, and PCB not only benefits from the demand for materials in 5G construction, but also benefits from the cyclical demand for the renewal and development of electronic industries such as flexible electronics. This cycle is global – not just in the Chinese market. Relatively speaking this year, many PCB stocks have basically not fallen. As for the subdivision leader, if it is a more conservative investor, you can consider Jingwang Electronics.
PCB <Quick Turn PCB supplier china >How large is the volume of this market?
It is a global market and prices are not determined solely by the Chinese market. There are reports that the PCB market is expected to exceed $60 billion in 2020. Many countries in Africa may not even have 2G or 3G, and even if they are directly cross-generational to 5G, the increment will be large. As companies such as Huawei and ZTE accelerate the expansion of the Asia-Africa market, the amount of PCB used will be higher than conservative forecasts. And the demand for the electronic end is not covered in the agency report - just from the perspective of the new base station.
Although the PCB is not a 5G downstream industry in a strict sense, it belongs to the 5G supporting industry.From a valuation perspective, who is the 5G concept company undervalued?
If you look at it for two years, it is underestimated now. Many people are afraid to buy ZTE. If ZTE is excluded, Fiberhome Communications can make money. There are also some stocks like Huagong Technology, which will definitely speculate when it is fried.
In the 5G era, Apple may be subverted.
After 2019, 5G mobile phones will appear. Of course, there may be problems such as higher prices. Which of the star companies such as Huawei, Xiaomi, Samsung and Apple will win the market recognition?
The price is relatively high and it is certain. Because the mobile phone can not be pressed before mass production. At present, Apple is still relatively conservative on the 5G side - this can be seen from Apple's patent application and response media. In the era of 5G mobile phones, "epoch-making" mobile phones like the iPhone 4 are more likely to appear in Android. This will make the status of the former hegemony challenged, because 5G must be connected with the Internet of Things, and it must be connected with automotive electronics, VR, intelligent transportation, etc. If you use a relatively closed system, it will definitely not work. If Apple insists on its own system, it may be subverted in the 5G era.
5G is more of an ecology than just a technology. 5G should be connected to narrow bandwidth applications such as watches, water meters, and gas meters. In addition, 5G should be connected to the industrial Internet and the Internet of Vehicles. 5G will build a whole new ecosystem, and the operating system must support this new change. Based on this, I am more optimistic about Huawei's practices.
Xiaomi uses the mobile phone as the entrance to its own ecology. What will it do?
Xiaomi and Huawei are in a dislocation competition. The future strength of Xiaomi may be the Internet of Things for the home. Tracking this aspect for a long time, originally optimistic about Baidu, but now the advantage of Xiaomi is getting stronger and stronger. Why do people often laugh at Xiaomi? Because many people think that Xiaomi is doing "rice powder small appliance store."
In fact, all the devices connected to Xiaomi's mobile phone form the IoT system of the home environment - this is the advantage of Xiaomi. Smart home appliances will be a good application scenario for 5G - Xiaomi is working hard in this place. To make a mobile phone, Xiaomi does not have this ability. Although Xiaomi has design capabilities, the best technology may be in the labs of Huawei, Apple, and Samsung.
After the 5G mobile phone is made, Xiaomi may catch up with its user advantage - this is possible.In addition to the old-fashioned mobile phones, what other 5G products or services will refresh people's perceptions in new forms?
The most intuitive is the bus and the car network. 5G As a new ecology, it is necessary to solve the bottleneck that each industry has been limited by the uplink and downlink speed of communication. For example, autonomous vehicles rely on their own radar and CPU, and only a very intelligent car can achieve L4 level (highly automatic driving) driving.
The current bottleneck in autonomous driving is caused by the incompetence of communication uplinks and downwards - if 5G solves this problem, the cost will be depressed, the current car and the rear car are all driven automatically, and their radar signals can interact - of course this It is a long-term application scenario.
In the short term, 5G can play a role in the field of automatic bus driving. The lowest application scenario for automatic driving thresholds: the first is low speed, and the second is fixed line – this is the case with buses. Therefore, after the arrival of 5G, the system of the vehicle system, the traffic light system, and the system of the bus operation center can communicate smoothly. The value of automatic driving on the bus will soon be reflected.
China's 5G-driven ecosystem can also reach 20 trillion
At present, the three major operators are expected to have a 5G investment of 1.3 trillion yuan. What is the overall investment scale of 5G?
Most of the brokerage research reports on this issue will be written. After the arrival of the 5G era, all mobile phones and TV sets will change. Because the broadband uplink and downlink speeds that the family normally uses will increase significantly, this means that TVs with resolutions below 4K will be eliminated now - 8K TVs are popular and drive smart homes.
The total scale of investment driven by 5G is that we need to look at the changes in the entire ecology – unlike the 4G era, which is just a mobile phone innovation. In the 5G era, not just mobile phones, many devices will take a step forward, especially cars. I am more optimistic about the transformation of the car in the 5G era. From this perspective, not only the scale of 1 trillion or 2 trillion investment, but also the order of 10 trillion or even 20 trillion.
From the ZTE incident to Huawei's recent experience, has the US pressure caused
major difficulties in China's 5G development?
Regarding Huawei, many people are worried that it will have major difficulties like ZTE, and it is unlikely that this will happen. Because ZTE's core patents are incomparable with Huawei, even if there is a chip embargo like ZTE, Huawei's ability to fight back is very strong, because Huawei has accumulated too many patents.
Japan recently stated that it will no longer purchase equipment from Huawei and ZTE, but then Softbank, which supports Huawei, believes that the entire 5G construction process in Japan will be delayed for more than half a year. Europe has always allowed Huawei to enter: France is directly welcoming; Germany is looking at the fire from the other side, and wants to make it cheaper; although Britain is ambiguous, it is not as straightforward as Japan to show that Huawei’s products need to wait for a while to enter, but rather If Huawei changes its rules, it can still enter.
Huawei is already the number one seed of 5G, so it is difficult to fight Huawei. Huawei will not be defeated in 5G technology, and it may only be defeated on the chip. At the same time, Huawei also has the strength to fight back in the related chip field in the future.